Are We Losing Control?

“What we do over the next few years will determine the future of humanity.”

Sir David King, 2022

In its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that the earth’s average global temperature has increased by 1.1^oC since the start of the industrial revolution. With the goal of excluding natural climatic variability, the IPCC’s figure is based on use of a 30-year rolling average temperature.

A 30-year rolling average, however, could be excluding more than just natural climatic variability. Using a 10-year rolling average, for example, Sir David King’s Climate Change Advisory Group (CCAG) puts the increase at ~1.35^oC. This substantially higher figure suggests accelerating and potentially non-linear climate change. It’s also very possible that the world has already triggered one or more climate change tipping points, and that a warming Arctic or a drying Amazon could already be emitting large quantities of CO₂e.

Using a 30-year rolling average, and failing to account for the potential triggering of tipping points, the IPCC and the international community as a whole could be substantially over-stating the feasibility of achieving today’s 1.5^oC and 2^oC global temperature targets. Indeed, Will Steffen’s figure above suggests that humanity is approaching or has already crossed a planetary threshold with potentially catastrophic outcomes.

Our team has been exploring this possibility and related questions for years, and in the case of some team members for decades. Some of our work is introduced below, and we would welcome the opportunity to engage on these topics. You can activate the videos by clicking on the images.